Category: Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

Exploring the intersections of thought, change, and opportunity.
A curated space for unconventional insights, thought experiments, and exploratory musings. Perfect for topics that don’t fit neatly into a box but spark meaningful conversation and fresh thinking.

Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

The Indian Rupee’s Struggle: A Detailed Analysis

Indrajit Roy Choudhury

The Indian rupee has plunged more than 6 per cent against the US dollar this year and tumbled to record lows against the American currency in recent weeks, weighed down by broad strength in the greenback and as investors retreated from domestic share markets. This is in spite of the Indian central bank’s conviction and actions to stall a freefall. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has attempted to save the vulnerable rupee. The analysts say the dollar is likely going to remain strong for the next three months, possibly to the end of the year. The Fed wants to maintain a strong dollar so that the dollar can remain the world's major reserve currency.

Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

The Emerging Challenge to Dollar Dominance: China’s Renminbi

Indrajit Roy Choudhury

Economic sanctions on Russia have highlighted the US dollar's power and the risks of heavy reliance on it, fueling discussions about China's Renminbi (RMB) as a global reserve currency if Beijing loosens its grip on the economy. Over 70 central banks hold RMB, and its popularity for international transactions is growing. China must open its markets, ensure currency stability, refrain from manipulation, and develop a mature financial system to boost RMB's global role.

Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

COVID-19: A Case of Knightian Uncertainty

Indrajit Roy Choudhury

Frank Knight, an economist, formalised a distinction between risk and uncertainty in his 1921 book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. In his classic book, Knight introduced a distinction between measurable uncertainty, which he called “risk,” and “true uncertainty,” which cannot “by any method be reduced to an objective, quantitatively determined probability.”

Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

Global Finance vs. COVID-19: Strategies for Economic Stability

Indrajit Roy Choudhury

G7 finance ministers and central bank governors pledge to use policy tools against coronavirus threat, but effectiveness remains uncertain. Rate cuts have been swift but may be limited. Global economy faces potential impacts, including market downturn and decreased trade. COVID-19 presents major challenges, affecting economic and trade activities globally and in Iraq. Iraq faces dual crises with plummeting oil prices and trade disruptions amidst coronavirus outbreak. Fiscal deficits and vulnerabilities loom, but hope for containment and recovery persists.

Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

The End of Libor: Navigating the Transition in the Financial World

Indrajit Roy Choudhury

LIBOR has been an endangered species for some time now. LIBOR, the rate that banks charge each other to borrow money, is slated to go by the wayside in 2021 and taking its place for USD will be something called the Secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR. Almost every part of the financial world is touched by LIBOR; it is plausibly the world's most important number.

Reflections, Ideas & Perspectives

The Dublin Bar Parable: A Lesson in Economic Missteps

Indrajit Roy Choudhury

Mary, a Dublin bar owner who offers "drink now, pay later" scheme, sees her sales boom, leading her local bank to increase her borrowing limit. The bank transforms these customer loans into securities, selling them to unaware investors. This leads to massive profits until the bank demands payment, resulting in Mary's bankruptcy and subsequent closure of the bar. The securities devalue, freezing economic activity and leading to job losses. Despite the economic struggles, the bank, brokers and executives are bailed out by the government, funded by non-drinkers' taxes. The story illustrates similarities with the 2007-08 economic crisis.