Strategic Consultant
Exploring the intersections of thought, change, and opportunity.
A curated space for unconventional insights, thought experiments, and exploratory musings. Perfect for topics that don’t fit neatly into a box but spark meaningful conversation and fresh thinking.
Frank Knight, an economist, formalised a distinction between risk and uncertainty in his 1921 book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. In his classic book, Knight introduced a distinction between measurable uncertainty, which he called “risk,” and “true uncertainty,” which cannot “by any method be reduced to an objective, quantitatively determined probability.”
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors pledge to use policy tools against coronavirus threat, but effectiveness remains uncertain. Rate cuts have been swift but may be limited. Global economy faces potential impacts, including market downturn and decreased trade. COVID-19 presents major challenges, affecting economic and trade activities globally and in Iraq. Iraq faces dual crises with plummeting oil prices and trade disruptions amidst coronavirus outbreak. Fiscal deficits and vulnerabilities loom, but hope for containment and recovery persists.
LIBOR has been an endangered species for some time now. LIBOR, the rate that banks charge each other to borrow money, is slated to go by the wayside in 2021 and taking its place for USD will be something called the Secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR. Almost every part of the financial world is touched by LIBOR; it is plausibly the world's most important number.
Mary, a Dublin bar owner who offers "drink now, pay later" scheme, sees her sales boom, leading her local bank to increase her borrowing limit. The bank transforms these customer loans into securities, selling them to unaware investors. This leads to massive profits until the bank demands payment, resulting in Mary's bankruptcy and subsequent closure of the bar. The securities devalue, freezing economic activity and leading to job losses. Despite the economic struggles, the bank, brokers and executives are bailed out by the government, funded by non-drinkers' taxes. The story illustrates similarities with the 2007-08 economic crisis.
A sensible prediction on a seemingly obvious outcome on how the markets would react following the British referendum on European Union membership by 36-year-old hedge fund manager James Hanbury has resulted in a vast win of £110 million ($148 million).
Indrajit Roy Choudhury 